Woolly Weather Forecaster...Maybe?

Would you be interested in knowing what the coming winter will be like in the north country? You could consult a caterpillar, specifically, the Woolly Bear caterpillar. Those who dwell in places where winter is long seek advance warning where cold and snow are involved. Woolly bear caterpillars have been part of the winter advanced warning team for decades, perhaps longer.

Maybe.

How does a small 2-inch (5 decimeters) moth caterpillar know what the coming winter will be you ask? Woolly bear caterpillars are striped black and orange brown. A woolly bear indicates the severity of the coming winter by the length of the black stripes on either end of its body. Long black stripes mean a long cold, severe winter. If the woolly bear has a larger orange/brown stripe in the center and less black it is thought to mean a mild winter.

Maybe?

It gets better. A woolly bear caterpillar’s black stripes are also thought to predict which part of winter will be most severe. If the head band is thicker black than the tail-the first part of winter will be severe. And, you guessed it…if the tail is the thickest black band-then the end of winter will be most severe. If both are equally thick…write off the entire winter and prepare to shovel often. Perhaps you might consider renting an apartment in a warm climate to the south.

Speaking of south, need a quick way to determine what kind of winter the woolly bear is predicting? Now is the time to find a woolly bear…and watch it. If it is crawling south, you have a confirmation that severe winter is ahead. And yes, you are right in assuming if it crawls north, a mild winter is coming. Now if it crawls east or west, well assume a normal winter is coming.

You wonder, how is it possible for the caterpillar of the Isabella Tiger Moth (It becomes one in the coming spring.) to predict winter? Consider these logical ideas…it lives outside 24/7. We reason it should be sensitive to changing weather conditions. Further, the woolly bear overwinters as a caterpillar under leaf litter, beneath a rotting log, in sheltered out of sight places. It seems likely that the caterpillar would have a sense of what is ahead for it in cold and snow…survival, right?

Then, why would the black bands be longer instead of the brown if severe winter weather is ahead? Do larger black bands contribute to the woolly bear’s ability to survive a severe winter? If so, how does this work? That brings up another question, how does one determine if the black bands are actually longer than usual? What is the usual length of the black bands on a woolly bear anyway? How do we compare, how do we actually know if they are in fact longer than usual?

What if I told you the woolly bear cannot actually predict the coming winter? What if I said the woolly bear winter forecast is simply…well, folklore?

Sorry to disappoint you…woolly bears are not winter weather forecasting experts; not even maybe forecasters.

They are simply fuzzy, interesting caterpillars we see just before winter. They are a delight to find and observe and even hold in our hands. One of the best things about woolly bears is the folk lore about winter weather.

Do you know the most important reason to go on a woolly bear hunt? Woolly bear habitat is beautiful. Searching for woolly bear caterpillars reveals many other interesting discoveries. Yes, I am suggesting you go outside today-surprised?

What comes next is certainty-no maybes:  “All things” are made by God. He looked at all He had made in the beginning and He saw that it was “very good.” I am certain little caterpillars are included.

This is what the Lord says— your Redeemer and Creator:

“I am the Lord, who made all things.  I alone stretched out the heavens.

Who was with me when I made the earth? Isaiah 44:24

One woolly bear was visible on top of the plant. This one was not so easy to see.